The Perfect Storm

Yes, I just watched that movie - for the first time. I never got around to seeing it back in the day, but finally while I was down south for maintenance I picked it up for $2.99. And you guys thought I was going to blog about me flying into a storm.

For those who haven't seen the movie "The Perfect Storm", its a story about a small crew of swordfish fishermen off the coast of Massachusetts who get caught in the hurricane of the century and everybody dies. No really. I thought despite being in a nautical setting, its still a great study on human factors, and what influences our judgement and decision making. It also reminded me of the show on Discovery Channel called "Deadliest Catch", which is a reality show following several different crab fishers off what I believe is the Alaskan coast.

For those who haven't seen the move, and those who haven't seen the movie in the last 10 years, I'll provide a quick summary.

The movie opens with all the swordboats (swordfish boats) returning to port and offloading their catches. Our star crew, and ill-fated subjects of the movie, return with little to show for their season's work - a developing trend apparently. The boat owner threatens the captain of the boat (George Clooney) with being replaced if he can't find a way to do better. The entire crew is dissappointed as well considering their cut of the profits is affected by the poor catch.

Despite it being October, near the end of the fishing season, the Captain decides to head back out for one more trip before winter, to try and salvage his job, reputation, and paycheque. There's some foreshadowing that they're going to run into some trouble (like we didn't already know from the title of the movie).

Out on the water after several days of fishing, once again it appears that they're going to come up short. They decide to head even further out to the known hot spot. Back in Boston, a meteorologist is tracking a developing hurricane thats heading north towards our intrepid fishermen. Back with our fishermen, who at this point have made it to the hot spot, are making the catches they were hoping for. Things are looking up. However they are warned via radio, and also by weather charts faxed directly to the Captain onboard, that they're being cut off from shore by the hurricane. They make the decision that they can stay offshore, hang out for a few days once they're done fishing and wait for the storm to pass before heading back inland. They have all their fish packed in ice, so they won't spoil. So far so good. The trouble begins when their ice machine breaks down. Without the constant production of ice, they can't keep their fish from spoiling. This present this with a critical decision - continue to hang around out at sea, wait for the storm to pass and all their fish to spoil, then head home, broke and failures again... or run the gauntlet straight through the hurricane. This is where the excellent study of human factors comes into play. Obviously the safest course of action is to wait for the storm to pass, however there are several factors that influence their decision otherwise. The first is the paycheque. If they wait out the storm, they'll come back with spoiled fish worth nothing. Secondly they're motivated, the Captain especially, by the fact that this is their last chance to make a successful fishing trip. If its not, the Captain will be fired, his reputation and pride spoiled.

Thirdly their lack of understanding of the magnitude of the storm prevents them from seeing the danger. The Captain never really looks at the weather charts faxed to him, and warnings issued by another fishing boat is ignored. Why? I think certainly a contributing factor is the "I've seen worse" syndrome - the falso belief that he can handle anything, because he has in the past. I also think his first reaction to the warnings is the defensive reaction of refusing help, because of the perception that accepting help would reflect poorly on his alrady fragile reputation.

So the decision has been made - through the storm they go. They endure massive waves and wind, constantly being swamped, and having their windows broken by flailing equipment, yet they continue on. Finally the exhausted crew fighting endlessly with a battered boat, make the decision to turn back around. Fatefully, its too little, too late. They're too far into the storm, and they can't make it out. A huge wave finally capsizes them, sinks the boat, and they all drown.

What influenced their decision to continue for so long? I think most of the factors that influenced their decision to try for it in the first place continued to play a part, but additionally, the fact that making a 180 in rough waters is a dangerous maneuver also contributed to them staying the course for so long. I also think that in general as humans once we make a decision, its difficult for us to re-evaluate our decision and change our mind. We're generally stubborn, and rather then honestly re-evaluating the situation and making a new and different decision based on the newly available data, we'd rather justify the original decision instead. That is until its clear beyond any doubt that we made the wrong one, which was the case of the Captain in the movie. Rather then re-evaluting the decision to plunge through the storm, he stuck to his guns, until it was too late. Finding the line that separates "too-late" and "still enough time to turn around" is an incredibly difficult task. The closer you approach the line, the more difficult it is to see, and the more dangerous the situation becomes. On the other hand there are always influencing factors that motivate us to creep closer and closer to that line.

This can apply with any type of activity with risk involved - aviating, seafaring, driving, even working with power tools or at heights. There are factors that motivate us towards taking the risk, yet the goal is to remain in the safe zone. This movie is such a great example because in seafaring the decisions made and the progression from safety to disaster occur slowly over the course of several days, so it is easier to disect. That progression in aviation can occur in a matter of a couple of hours or less. In driving it can occur in a matter of seconds. Understanding our motivation and the factors that influence us is key in staying on the right side of that line.